(Washington, D.C.) USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey told farm broadcast reporters in Washington, D.C., that warming ocean waters signal an emerging El Niño, expected to take shape by late spring or early summer, with a 90% likelihood of persisting into fall and the winter of 2026–2027.
Rippey says currently only 27 percent of the corn-growing regions in the Midwest are in drought, and 37 percent of the soybeans are in drought. He says that it is a bit of good news, as a lot of the drought conditions are affecting the western Corn Belt, mainly in Nebraska, and the Great Plains.
Rippey notes that in the short term, the 8–14-day outlook released on April 26 raises concerns about a late frost affecting the eastern United States into early May.
Rippey adds that the week three and four outlook points to further surges of cool air, which could harm crops that have already emerged in the southern Corn Belt. He also notes that the summer outlook for June, July, and August suggests a neutral phase between La Niña and El Niño, meaning other factors will play a larger role in shaping the weather. He says lately the weather pattern has shown an odd blocking pattern bringing cold air down; however, he adds that these blocking patterns are tough to forecast more than a few weeks out. Rippey says the Climate Prediction Center has been forecasting a ridge of high pressure for the summer months in the western portion of the U.S., possibly intensifying. But he says it looks more optimistic further to the east.
Rippey expects the El Niño weather pattern to take hold this winter and have a big impact on how weather patterns play out in December, January, and February. He says this pattern could produce a mild winter across the United States—drier than normal in the north, and significant precipitation and stormy in the southern U.S.
Again, that is USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. Rippey’s entire comments are posted below regarding the short-term and long-term forecast
