(NAFB) The El Nino pattern that is influencing weather currently in North and South America will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In fact, meteorologists are predicting El Nino will continue to strengthen. Paul Pastelok, Lead Long Range Forecaster at AccuWeather, says this is not a typical El Nino.
“Over the last several years, we’ve seen a lot of northern branch systems with less precipitation in the south. It’s going to probably flip the other way this year because of El Nino, and areas in the Northwest, the upper Midwest, and parts of the Northeast could see drier than average conditions. Already starting to see signs of that now, but more so as we get in the fall and winter.”
Pastelok says those in the West and Southwest should keep a wary eye on the sky.
“California is watching very closely the Southwest because they just went through a winter last year where they had hardly any snow, and then it led to this significant drought. Again, short term. They’re already dealing with a long-term drought, and so they’re hoping and praying that they can get some moisture out of this El Nino, and they probably will. They will get bouts of it. The question is, is how frequent?”
He says the Plains states will be a mixed bag.
“This is an area that’s probably going to miss out, especially when you look at states like Nebraska, Iowa on northward. They may not be in the main storm track all the time, so things slipping underneath to their south, Texas should be wetter. Oklahoma should be wetter. They can use some precipitation. I think it’ll start kickstarting in September, but really full blast as we get into October and November for the southern states. Northern states, unfortunately, not looking too good. That sets up poorly as we head towards the winter and eventually the next spring.”
When forecasting for the Eastern U.S., Pastelok says that will be tricky.
“Most El Ninos bring mild weather, not as much snow. You can get some bombs once in a while late in the winter. Usually, the storm track slips to the south, and they get a lot of heavier rain in the Carolinas, severe weather in Florida, but there’s a chance this year that it could pivot based on some of the things we’ve looked at. So El Nino may share it with other signals in the east and still bring some rain to the Mid-Atlantic and some snow at some point. But it may come in bunches, the snow, instead of the nickel-and-dime kind of thing.”
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
#################################################################################################################
Audio from NAFB News Service
Audio with Paul Pastelok, Lead Long Range Forecaster at AccuWeather
