(Area) Rain chances are prevalent in the forecast this week.
State Climatologist Justin Glisan says a more active weather pattern is arriving. “It’s looking like the short term outlook getting into the middle of the month is showing a more active storm track. Looking at the seven day forecast it looks like an active storm track.”
He says this will be beneficial to catching up on precipitation deficits that stacked up in March and April. However, it may not last long. “Overall if we look at the monthly outlook for May no clear signal on the temperature, it’s equal chances of above, below, or near average. We are seeing a dryer signal. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me given that we are in the ENSO neutral phase with a probability of shifting to La Niña which typically we’d see wetter conditions as opposed to that La Niña signal we have been in for three years. We’ll have to see how the first half of the month goes.”
Glisan says models show a probability for El Niño coming into fruition in the end of May. That favors cooler summer temperatures and not as dry as an La Niña summer.
