(USDA) The USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports Monday, projecting higher production for corn and soybeans in the 2025-26 marketing year, with mixed implications for ending stocks.
Corn
The USDA projects 2025-26 corn production at 15.82 billion bushels, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre, aligning with analyst expectations. Planted acreage is forecast at 95.3 million acres (up 5% year-over-year), with 87.4 million acres expected to be harvested.
Demand projections include:
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Feed and residual use: 5.9 billion bushels
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Ethanol use: 5.5 billion bushels
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Total domestic use: 12.785 billion bushels
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Exports: 2.675 billion bushels
Ending stocks are forecast at 1.8 billion bushels, about 200 million below pre-report expectations. The projected farmgate price is $4.20 per bushel.
Global corn outlook for 2025-26:
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Beginning stocks: 287.29 million metric tons (mmt)
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Production: 1,264.98 mmt
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Exports: 195.81 mmt
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Ending stocks: 277.84 mmt
For the current 2024-25 season, corn exports were raised to 2.6 billion bushels, reducing ending stocks to 1.415 billion bushels. The production estimate remains at 14.867 billion bushels, with domestic use at 12.64 billion bushels. The farmgate price stays at $4.35 per bushel.
Notable international adjustments:
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Brazil: Production raised to 130 mmt (+4 mmt), exports lowered to 43 mmt (-1 mmt)
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Argentina: Production unchanged at 50 mmt, exports lowered to 35.5 mmt (-0.5 mmt)
Soybeans
USDA forecasts 2025-26 soybean production at 4.34 billion bushels, based on a 52.5 bpa yield and 83.5 million planted acres. Harvested acres are estimated at 82.7 million.
Supply and use projections:
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Beginning stocks: 350 million bushels
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Imports: 20 million bushels
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Total supply: 4.71 billion bushels
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Crush: 2.49 billion bushels
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Exports: 1.815 billion bushels
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Ending stocks: 295 million bushels
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Projected price: $10.25 per bushel
For 2024-25, old-crop ending stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels to 350 million, reflecting higher exports. Other demand categories were unchanged. The average price remains $9.95 per bushel.
Global soybean projections:
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2025-26 ending stocks: 124.33 mmt
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Production: 426.82 mmt
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Brazil: 175 mmt
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Argentina: 48.5 mmt
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China imports: 112 mmt (+4 mmt vs 2024-25)
For 2024-25, global ending stocks are now 123.18 mmt, slightly up from last month. Brazil and Argentina’s output projections remain at 169 mmt and 49 mmt, respectively.
