(Omaha) The Midwest rural economy showed its first sign of growth in five months in May 2026, according to the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), a measure based on a survey of rural bank CEOs conducted by Creighton University. The index for the 10-state agricultural and energy-dependent region rose above the 50.0 “growth neutral” threshold for the first time since February, even though the overall reading slipped to 45.7 from April’s 47.9. The RMI runs on a 0 to 100 scale, where 50 indicates no net growth.
A key positive shift came from farm and ranchland values, which rebounded to 50.1 in May after three months of decline. Agricultural exports also strengthened, with data from the International Trade Association showing a 7.5% increase in regional agricultural exports in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025, including a sharp 76.9% rise in exports to China, reaching $206.7 million.
At the same time, significant pressures remain. Weak grain prices and high input costs were cited by 56.6% of bank CEOs as the main factor limiting farm financial conditions, and 47.8% reported that farmers’ financial positions worsened from 2025 to 2026. Credit conditions remain tight despite the modest improvement in land values.
Broader data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City show slight increases in Midwest and Plains farmland values in early 2026, including a 3% year-on-year rise in non-irrigated cropland, supported by strong cattle sector values. However, drought continues to affect about 60% of U.S. cattle inventories and hay acreage, adding ongoing risk.
Overall, while the May reading signals a modest rebound driven by land values and export gains, the rural economy outlook remains cautious due to weak farm income, high costs, and tight credit conditions.
