Welcome to your weekly fantasy column brought to you by yours truly Austin West. Every week you can hop on the fantasy train with me from 8-9am on KS 95.7 or you can wait to read the column after everyone who heard it on the radio gets a head start. Truly up to you. Regardless, this is the place you want to be for local fantasy football insight all season long. Feel free to send me any questions or comments to the Wake Up with Austin Facebook page or shoot me an email at austin@westerniowatoday.com because I am here for you. This week’s topic is running backs in confusing backfields.
With more teams loving the running back by committee idea, it has become harder and harder to nail down a second fantasy running back outside the top 10 or so guys, i.e., Christian McCaffery, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs (if he signs), Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, and Bijan Robinson. Even these guys could have a second guy take time away from them or have a free agent signing come to disrupt their value (we’ll talk more on that in a minute). Either way, understanding these other backfields will help you head into your draft a little wiser on outlooks of this tumultuous running back field this season. Don’t forget that there’s still two weeks of preseason left so lots could happen and even as the season progresses, monitor the waiver wire. First up, the blockbuster signings of Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott come to teams who had star fantasy running backs before and now could look to cut into their production.
New York Jets- Breece Hall & Dalvin Cook: I’m sure the Iowans are familiar with the name Breece Hall, the former ISU Cyclone, who became a star for the Jets last season as a rookie before succumbing to an ACL injury that sidelined him in Week 7. Now, the Jets have signed former Viking Dalvin Cook to the roster. Cook was an established back in Minnesota with pass catching and three down capabilities so at first glance Hall could have some tough competition for the starting role. However, as of Tuesday, Hall saw his first day on the practice field after being cleared from the physically unable to perform list and Cook won’t be there for a while as he is due to be a first-time dad. Most likely, by speculation, Cook will be used to ease Hall back into the bell cow job in New York before becoming a change of pace back. This means Hall will most likely drop slightly in ADP and raise Cook but by mid-season it will be Hall’s backfield as your fantasy RB1 and Cook will be an AJ Dillon-like flex play.
New England Patriots- Rhamondre Stevenson & Ezekiel Elliott: Another big free agency signing as former Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott joins the Rhamondre Stevenson in New England. Stevenson coming off a 1,000+ yard rushing and almost 70 reception season has been the only light of offense the Patriots have. Thankfully we saw what Elliott does in a backfield with a pass catching star- he becomes the ground and pound guy. Well, Stevenson does that too so where does Zeke stand to gain? Insurance backup, short yardage, and short touchdowns. Laid out by analyst Ian Hartitz: TD% on runs within 5 yards- Elliott 56.3%, Stevenson 28.6%. So, less touchdowns for Stevenson if the Patriots get close but should keep control of the backfield. Another situation to watch.
While it’s not great for Breece Hall or Rhamondre Stevenson, it’s definitely not good either. Continue to watch the situation and if you’ve already drafted either of these guys, you may just have to hope it works out. Next up, star rookies could prove to be a big problem for the established stars in the backfield, regardless of how many guys they have to beat to get there.
Miami Dolphins- Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr, & De’Von Achane: Miami’s backfield is a mess. Right now it seems Raheem Mostert has the top job based on last year and sitting out the first preseason game with other starters. Last year though, Jeff Wilson Jr. was finding time to make a splash here and there as both these running backs resigned with the team this offseason. Then add rookie De’Von Achane who people absolutely love and is speedy on the field. (A centralized theme of this offense) Achane has the chance to beat out these older vets but currently is unlikely. None of these backs are going early in drafts as of now, so I’d continue to rank these three in this order.
Detroit Lions- David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs: This is a competition that no one is even considering a competition. Experienced vet David Montgomery, another former Cyclone, isn’t going nearly as high in drafts as Alabama rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Lions insiders report that Gibbs looks to be more of the receiving back so a large amount of targets like a wide receiver while Montgomery will be the major runner. Don’t count out an overtake by Gibbs if he’s able to take advantage of opportunities, he was drafted top 15 after all.
Seattle Seahawks- Kenneth Walker III & Zach Charbonnet: Man what are you doing Pete Carroll? Back to back years of drafting second round running backs? Especially after the year Kenneth Walker III had last year. Now, Walker and Charbonnet will have to compete for the number one spot unless an injury opens the way for one of the other. Both have already sustained injuries in the preseason so it looks to be an even battle. Both will have mid round draft grades and the difference between an RB2 or a flex play will be the playing time they receive as we go through the preseason.
When you draft will be a huge factor for these three backfields as preseason games will give the chance for someone to breakout or have coaches make decisions. The rest of these are just a mess of things that have people in confusion headed into the second week of preseason.
New Orleans Saints- Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, & Kendre Miller: As confusing as this backfield may seem, this is one of the simplest ones to explain. Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season after which he will take over the “main role”. Jamall Williams is the accessory back who will supposedly have a leadership role during Kamara suspension but is unlikely to hold onto it as Kamara returns. However, Williams was the king of easy touchdowns last year getting an insane amount of redzone touches. He will most likely be used the same way in New Orleans. Add rookie Kendre Miller who will at most be a change of pace back or garbage time fill-in.
Chicago Bears- Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, & Roschon Johnson: In Chicago, it’s career backups vs rookie. Khalil Herbert has been stuck behind David Montgomery and is now getting his chance. D’Onta Foreman finally got featured for the first time last year in Carolina but still had to split carries with Christian McCaffery and Chuba Hubbard. As of now it looks like Herbert will start but don’t count out the overtake from Foreman. These two may battle it out like the Seahawks running backs for the early games before a true number one reveals itself. Both are already discounted in drafts due to the rushing upside of Justin Fields but now are even more so. As for rookie Roschon Johnson, he will get a lot of preseason work but will likely be held to the same role as Kendre Miller as was stuck behind Bijan Robinson at Texas so didn’t get as much work last year.
Philadelphia Eagles- D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, & Rashaad Penny: This is it. The most interesting backfield of the offseason as it could be a committee the whole way through. Add the rushing of Jalen Hurts and there’s not many fantasy points to go around. ESPN has Penny ranked the highest of the three. Gainwell was the only one on the team last year and didn’t play in the preseason game: as many starters do. Swift is the average fan’s pick after knowing what he could in Detroit when healthy. What a predicament to be in. More preseason games will tell more but even without them they are late round picks and if you’re drafting today, use rankings you trust.