(NAFB) After nearly a year and a half of La Niña conditions, North America is facing a major shift to El Niño. Some climate scientists say there is a possibility of a Super El Niño event as the growing season progresses this summer. The last Super El Niño event occurred ten years ago, beginning in mid-2016 and continuing into 2017.
An El Niño system is formed when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, the world’s largest body of water, rise a couple of degrees above long-term normal — and this change has already taken place. Effects of an El Niño system take several months to develop. Still, by early summer, it will cause air temperatures to rise above normal, along with a milder and wetter growing season, and this will continue into the fall and winter.
Kent Moore is a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto. Moore says that the magnitude of a weather event like a Super El Niño is hard to predict in its early stages. He says that an El Niño system has already set up for this growing season and will continue into the fall and winter. But Moore says only time will tell if this El Niño will be a ‘super’ event.
“We measure the strength of the El Niños by the temperature, and so a Super El Niño is just a very, very warm El Niño. Because the sea-surface temperature in the Pacific is much warmer, we’ll definitely get an El Niño later in the summer and into the fall. As the weeks and months go by, we’ll get better guidance, and we’ll be surer as to whether or not we’re going to get one of these super events.”
Professor Moore explains that major system events, such as La Niña and El Niño, are driven by temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean. And, due to the sheer size of the Pacific, the upcoming El Niño event will have a worldwide effect.
“The whole globe is warmer. The biggest effect of El Niño is in Eastern Canada. In the States, it tends to get wetter. It’s a bit wetter off on the West Coast as well. Effects in Canada are more localized in the winter. That’s when we tend to see these weather patterns affected by El Niño.
Looking ahead to the upcoming fall and winter season later this year, Professor Moore says that El Niño effects will be seen in the central and western parts of the continent. Depending on the severity of the system, the Canadian Prairies, the U.S. Midwest, and the Great Plains States could see a drier fall and winter, and milder temperatures into the winter months.
“If we do have a mild winter next year, it’s likely that the snowpack will be reduced. That will again lead to drier conditions come spring 2027, just because the ground will be very dry.”
That’s Professor Kent Moore from the University of Toronto.
Audio provided by NAFB News Service
Audio with Kent Moore, a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto
